TREASURIES-Yields tick lower as data, Fed firm up 25 bp cut expectations

UNITED STATES - A mixed employment report on Friday morning and an even-keel message from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell left yields modestly lower, firming up market expectations the central bank will cut interest rates by the expected 25 basis points at its September meeting.

The Fed will continue to act “as appropriate” to sustain an economic expansion now in its 11th year, Powell said Friday in Zurich, repeating a pledge that financial markets have taken to signal a further reduction in interest rates.

Treasury yields were modestly lower than where they had been going into the panel discussion, with the two-year yield down 1.6 basis points to 1.524% and the 10-year yield down 1.7 basis points to 1.548%. The Labor Department’s report earlier Friday showed job growth had slowed more than expected in August, but losses were cushioned by strong wage gains, which should support consumer spending and keep the economy expanding moderately amid rising threats from trade tensions.

The economy’s waning fortunes, underscored by an inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, have been largely blamed on the White House’s year-long trade war with China. Washington and Beijing slapped fresh tariffs on each other’s exports on Sunday. While the two economic giants on Thursday agreed to hold high-level talks in early October in Washington, the uncertainty, which has eroded business confidence, lingers.

The jobs report is unlikely to change what the Fed does at its next monetary policy meeting. “The labor market continues to be the strongest point of data across the economic landscape, and that’s not what has been the catalyst for the Fed shifting to an easing bias,” added Merz.